Sunday, March 4, 2012

Thoughts on Cleveland Browns and RG3

Let me preface this by saying that I care nothing about football in the state of Ohio.
The only reason I am writing this is the potential for debate, which is what I love to do.

Basically, everyone can agree that the Browns are terrible and desperately need an identity.
Some folks believe that trading for the Rams' #2 pick and drafting RG3 is the answer.
Cleveland has two first-round picks, thanks to last year's very lucrative trade with the Falcons, and would seem to be in the best position to acquire the pick, draft RG3 and pin all their hopes-and-dreams to his Hello Kitty socks, except for the little detail that for some reason they don't want to include the 22nd pick in the trade.

While I understand wanting to keep that pick and add a player with it this year, it doesn't make sense.
In order to keep the 22nd pick this year, and draft whatever player goes along with it, they are inevitably going to have to give up not only their 1st round pick next year but probably additional picks in order to outbid the Washington Redskins.  I just don't see the logic in keeping a 22nd pick to get a player at that level   for the upcoming season when you are likely giving up a much higher pick next year to do so (I think it is highly probable they will be picking in the top 10 again).

To put it in perspective, the 22nd pick came from the Atlanta Falcons, who got knocked out of the first round of the playoffs, so in order for their pick next year to be 22nd the Browns will have to make the playoffs, which is highly unlikely when they would be breaking in a rookie quarterback with questions at tons of other offensive positions (Guard, RB, WR), and when they are in a division with Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinatti, ALL of which made the playoffs last year).

So, basically, the Browns need to make a decision:
Either you value RG3 highly enough to give up BOTH of your 1st Round Picks this year, or you don't and you need to abandon the trade altogether and look for alternatives.

Since everyone seems to think that the Browns should just hand over both picks and anoint RG3 as the savior of their franchise, I am going to look at their situation should they decide against this course of action.
I feel it important to mention here that the Browns have somewhere along the lines of $30 million in cap space (assuming they cut Seneca Wallace), so they can go out and sign a handful of quality starters with no problem.  

What the Browns should do if they don't trade for RG3:

1.  Sign a veteran starting QB

While the ideal scenario would be to go out and sign Peyton Manning to an incentive-laden 3-5 year deal, which would give them an instant draw for fans, a legitimate shot as contenders and a mentor for Colt McCoy, it is unlikely that this would happen.
Barring that, I would like to see Kyle Orton or Jason Campbell, both of whom are underrated and would provide both competition and veteran leadership for young Mr. McCoy.  While I feel that either of these QB's would beat Colt for the starting job, there is the possibility that they would push him to excel, in which case you've got a quality backup that isn't breaking the bank and might even turn into trade bait later.


2.  Be aggressive in free agency

Guard: If Eric Steinbach is back and healthy, great, but they could definitely use another quality Guard, and I would much rather have a proven veteran like Nicks or Grubbs in place than try to break-in an unproven rookie.

Wide Receiver: There are a ton of WR's on the market this year, and while I wouldn't break the bank chasing a Colston or Bowe I would definitely give a long look to a Meacham or Wayne, and if you could get a bargain on a savvy veteran like Lee Evans it would really help that unit.

Defensive End: Making a successful run at Mario Williams would be HUGE, but I think he is going to be way too expensive, and the Browns have too many needs to pay a premium at this position.
Adding a veteran playmaker at Defensive End should be a priority, but not if you have to vastly overpay to do so; there are plenty of second-tier options here.

Runningback: If you can't re-sign Peyton Hillis, I wouldn't panic and overpay a free-agent back like Michael Bush, mainly because I feel that Owen Marecic deserves a shot as a change-of-pace power back.  The current roster has plenty of weapons for a back-by-committee and you can always pick up another RB with your 2nd round pick.  Besides, as usual there will be plenty of value-priced veterans that can give you a few years of production while you sort out more pressing needs (like the defensive side of the ball).

Outside Linebacker: Picking up an Outside Linebacker, cheaply and on a short-term, non-guaranteed contract, would not be a bad idea, since there isn't likely to be a good fit for you in the draft this year, at least not as a possible starter.

Cornerback: While this is definitely a lean crop this year, with better (and cheaper) options in the draft, there are still several players worth a look.
Carr and Rogers lead the way, but both are likely to command larger contracts than they deserve.
If an athletic playmaker like Tracy Porter could be had at a reasonable price, he would plug in nicely opposite Haden, allowing Sheldon Brown to switch to Nicklback or Safety and prolong his career.
Or, barring that, adding William Gay as a nickelback and to add compete with (or possibly rotate with)  Sheldon Brown wouldn't be a bad fit.


3. Trade down from the 4th Pick

This is where things get interesting, because if the Rams don't trade with Cleveland then they are likely trading down with Washington and sitting at the 6th pick, behind Tampa Bay, getting nervous about missing out on need-filling playmakers like Claiborne and Blackmon.  They would probably be more than happy to throw-in a 2nd rounder to swap spots and have their pick of these two, especially since several other teams with top-10 picks would kill to make that deal (Jags, Panthers, Bills).

Getting an extra pick or two and staying in the top 10 would make sure you could add a big time contributor, like a Riley Reiff or a Quinton Coples or a Dontari Poe or a Luke Kuechly (and move him to their starting Weakside Linebacker).


4. Be smart with the 22nd Pick

First of all, the Browns shouldn't be afraid to trade this pick either, especially if it involves getting a 2013 1st round pick and another 2nd or 3rd rounder this year.
Secondly, and I cannot stress this enough, THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO REACH WITH THIS PICK. The Browns should be able to make a true value pick, whether it fills an immediate need or not, as you should embrace that you are rebuilding.
If there is a Cordy Glenn or a Michael Floyd or a Fletcher Cox that falls to here, be ecstatic.  Do not, however, reach for a questionable Defensive End or a project player or a Tight End or some position that has had a run on it and been picked clean, such as will likely happen with Cornerbacks this year.


5. Wait on CB's & RB's; try to avoid TE's in the draft

Cornerbacks are definitely going to be overvalued, although you really couldn't go wrong with Claiborne in the top 10.  There are definitely some diamonds in the rough to be had in the late rounds, as depth players and long-term projects with nickelback potential.

Runningbacks are always easy to find in the later rounds, especially with the back-by-committee approach.
This year is no exception, with plenty of speed and/or power to choose from well into the third day.
Even if you can't re-sign Hillis or bring in a quality free agent, don't panic and draft a back too high here.

This isn't a great draft for Tight Ends, and with the phenomenal performances from Jimmy Smith and Gronkowski this year everyone is going to be overvaluing this position.  Unless someone really falls through the cracks then I would recommend avoiding this position altogether.